B r i a n V e r k l e y

phase 3

2005-08-11 23:45:27 • by Brian Verkley

so now that i have this blog, it is high time i start using it to record my thoughts.  I have known for a long time that i should write down my predictions.  You can't see the error of your ways, the sillyness of youth, or past perfection (if that occurs) if you don't write it down.  heh, anyway.

in 1995 i said that "in 2005, Microsoft will not be the dominant force it is now".  I think i was refering to the PC and desktop, which clearly would make me wrong, but if you look at computing in general, like web servers/browsers, and portable electronics (think ipod and blackberry), i think i could make a case.

thinking about this brought me to a revelation.  here is what i think.

phase 1: computing for business backoffice
the first real use for computers was in the backoffice of business.  they were used to keep records, crunch large numbers, etc. etc.  they weren't on everyones desk yet, as they were much too big, but they became critical to business.  IBM owned this era.  a near monopoly, totally dominant.

phase 2: computing for office / school
the computer is now small enough to be a desktop.  think of the power of letting everyone use the machine to create there own spreadsheets and essays.  sure you can play games on it, but most will be on office desks and in student's dorms.  Microsoft owned this era.  a near monopoly, totally dominant

phase 3: beyond productivity
next year apple will make more money selling ipods than all their other computer products combined.  the xbox and ps3 have nothing to do with productivity, and everything to do with entertainment.  you can watch tv on your cell phone now.  you can access your same gmail "program" from any internet capable device, even your blackberry.

now when phase 2 started, phase 1 didn't really end.  There is still a large need for backoffice computing, and IBM still holds a large chunk of that business, but IBM stopped being the market heavyweight. There was a new player that dictated the rules.

as phase 3 is starting, i don't expect microsoft to suddenly loose importance or disapear on the desktop, well, not _because_ of phase 3 anyway.  but there will be a new player that will dictate the rules.  Perhaps this time it will be a number of companies rather than just one as before, but only time will tell.

i know you all want to hear it, so who do i think is in the best position to be the phase 3 leader... Apple.

and i have my reasons... more about that later.

Comments

by Leanne Verkley • 2005-08-12 12:19:32

My prediction is also apple. But who knows. There could be something coming out tomorrow that far exceeds them! New technology is so fast these days.

by brian jackson • 2005-08-18 01:33:42

apple eh? interesting. they have the design, but I find their lack of "open-ness" and willingness to sue at the drop of a hat is disturbing. sure, they have a pretty interface (for their BSD OS)... but do they have what it take to be the next dominant force in the computing industry... not so sure.

especially as powers like china and india forge new ground (with and without help from us north americans). they dont want fuzz and fluff, they want something cheap and for the masses.

me? I am a convergence guy, but who knows though... care to wager? ;)