B r i a n V e r k l e y

more on Phase 3

2007-01-10 00:00:20 • by Brian Verkley

I still think there is a new computing trend starting.  Well, technically it started back in 2001 or so, but no one has noticed.  I call it phase 3.  Phase 1 was computing on the mainframe.  Phase 2 was a personal computers on the desktop.  Phase 3 is computing without the computer, which often means mobile, but doesn't require mobility.  I started predicting this a long time ago at http://ajax.verkley.com/blog/brian/sid/22

I also predicted at the time that Apple would lead the way, and be the Microsoft of Phase 2, or the IBM of Phase 1.  Today, I think Apple has shown us the first device that will be world recognizable as _the_ device of early Phase 3.  The iPhone ... http://www.apple.com/iphone The iPod, which everyone knows of if not owns, woke Apple to this coming trend and the iPhone is Apple teaching the rest of the industry and the world.

I could go on and on about this device which is really a phone and ipod in one, but also includes blackberry functionality as a core feature.  Not to mention that it runs OSX, the same OS that runs on the iMac desktop computer.  There are some real features here that aren't found in other devices.  Widescreen portable video, portable usable internet, and most of all, only one button.

No PDA stylus either.  _Everything_ is controlled with the tip of your finger.  When texting a virtual keyboard pops up.  When dialing the phone, you get a phone keypad.  When surfing the internet, your finger scrolls.  No more too-tiny-to-push buttons for every crazy feature that these "smart" phones pack in.  "Point and click" becomes "touch".  What could be easier?

I'm not suggesting that this device is the one and only device of Phase 3.  I'm just pointing at it and saying this is a significant step forward, Apple is leading the way, and Computers won't dominate the computing world in years to come.  Oh, and Apple Computer Inc. agrees with me.  They dropped the "Computer" from their name today.

Comments

by brian jackson • 2007-01-10 08:07:45

I applaud them for taking a stab at phones and TV (and really wished Cisco would sue them for the use of "iPhone"), but this new phone is silly.  They compare it to other smartphones, which do well because of the corporations that embrace them (outlook/exchange support).  The iPhone is restricted in many ways:

Via Engadget:

    *  No 3G. We know you know, but still, it hurts man.
    * No over the air iTunes Store downloads or WiFi syncing to your host machine.
    * No expandable memory.
    * No removable battery.
    * No Exchange or Office support.

And $600 for an 8GB phone with a 2 year (Cingular only) contract?  Yeah right.

Again, I give them praise for innovating, and pushing the envelope, but a lot of this is just marketing and hype.  Great for the stocks (which I hope you own Brian, since you seem so confident in them ;) ), but not really showing us anything new.  But hey, it looks cool.

Ill keep my HTC 8535 thanks. :P

by brian jackson • 2007-01-10 08:14:10

A little further explanation of my second last paragraph.
Where Apple really innovates is in packaging existing products in a nice and "gooey" way.  Their marketing and the way they get people fired up is really great (since Jobs has returned).  I just think that people need to be smarter when they consider buying an Apple product.
I would love to have a Mac Pro.  Not because it looks cool, or is the fastest (because neither are true), but because of what it can do functionally.  I mean, I see people using their MacBook boxes as carrying cases for crying out loud!
Oh well.  Time to go buy some stock in RIM (which is down like ~$10, even though the iPhone isn't a competitor... weird).

by Brian Verkley • 2007-01-10 22:18:03

Brian, you are right that the iPhone is missing features that we will certainly see on similar devices in the future, but it can be said that the iPod doesn't have the largest memory available on MP3 players, or expandable memory, or wireless sync, or, etc. etc. and nobody cares. No one.

Say it with me now, people don't buy technology. They buy functionality and experience.

The iPod works, is crazy easy to use, and doesn't look like a portable computer.

I agree that it isn't a blackberry replacement for the vast majority of businesses though. It won't hurt RIM much at all as it doesn't compete in the same market. The iPhone is the smartphone for personal use and non geeks.

by brian jackson • 2007-01-11 10:07:35

I believe people buy the iPod because other people buy the iPod.  Not that the iPod isn't very good.  It just isn't the best.  They got a huge jump on the competition, relatively early in the game, and they are reaping the rewards of that now.

Apple is now great at taking existing technologies, and innovating in terms of design to make it desirable to people.  Other devices out there already have features the iPhone doesn't.

As usual, if Apple can make money from this (hopefully they do), I am all for it!  And anytime there is more competition, I am also for it.

I watched the keynote and got a little annoyed with their comparisons is all.  Now making a few comparisons to the PSP would have been interesting (music, movies, photos), and probably much more effective.

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